Inflation expectations in the euro area: trends and policy considerations

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Archive ouverte de Sciences Po (SPIRE)

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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.2861/744032

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Sciences Po - SPIRE

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Sciences Po

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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/ , info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess

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central bank economic forecasting euro area inflation monetary policy -fin]

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Papers Monetary management Dialog Euro area Euro zone

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Christophe Blot et al., « Inflation expectations in the euro area: trends and policy considerations », Archive ouverte de Sciences Po (SPIRE), ID : 10.2861/744032

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Most economic decisions of economic agents are based upon expectations of inflation. Inflation expectations play an important role for the determination of inflation and the transmission of monetary policy. They are not observable and are inferred from alternative indicators. We show that all these measures generally fail to predict inflation. We also assess their anchoring and show that long-term expectations are better anchored to the inflation target than inflation expectations at shorter horizons. This paper was provided by the Policy Departmentfor Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 7 February 2022.

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