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2016
- handle: 10670/1.ql83lc
- halshs: halshs-01290284
- doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1585-x
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10584-015-1585-x
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
scenario uncertainty Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global WarmingSujets proches
Novels Fiction--Plots Dramatic plots Drama--Plot Scenarios Screen plays Filmscripts Photoplays Film scripts Moving-picture plays Scripts (Motion pictures) Film plays Screenplays Motion picture scripts ScenariosCiter ce document
Evelina Trutnevyte et al., « Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1007/s10584-015-1585-x
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Résumé
Scenarios are widely used for long-term climate and energy analysis. However, in the great majority of studies with a handful of scenarios or scenario categories, both scenario developers and users capture only a subset of future uncertainties. We propose three focal points for reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration: (1) to ensure that scenario developers embrace an increased space of multidimensional uncertainties, (2) to facilitate the process of scenario users capturing this space, and (3) to evaluate and iteratively revise the improvement progress. If these focal points are adopted, scenario studies in climate and energy analysis shall not simply stop after producing scenarios, but shall continue with techniques to facilitate elicitation of user-specific insights, as well as evaluation of both scenarios and scenario techniques