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2022
- handle: 10670/1.qr8jzu
- hal: hal-03767264
- doi: 10.1007/s00355-022-01397-4
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00355-022-01397-4
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
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French presidential elections plurality with a runoff monotonicity Z - Other Special Topics/Z.Z1 - Cultural Economics • Economic Sociology • Economic Anthropology/Z.Z1.Z13 - Economic Sociology • Economic Anthropology • Social and Economic StratificationSujets proches
Melt runoff Water runoff, Storm Run-off Meltwater runoff Snowmelt runoff Snow melt runoff Snow dump runoff Snowmelt water runoff Snow cover runoff Water runoff, Snowmelt Stormwater runoff Rainfall runoff Storm runoff Snowmelt-induced runoff Flowoff Storm water runoff Presidential campaigns Presidential elections Campaigns, Presidential Frenchmen (French people) Electoral politics Franchise PollsCiter ce document
Umut Keskin et al., « Monotonicity violations under plurality with a runoff: the case of French presidential elections », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1007/s00355-022-01397-4
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Résumé
A voting rule is monotonic if a winning candidate never becomes a loser by being raised in voters' rankings of candidates, ceteris paribus. Plurality with a runoff is known to fail monotonicity. To see how widespread this failure is, we focus on French presidential elections since 1965. We identify mathematical conditions that allow a logically conceivable scenario of vote shifts between candidates that may lead to a monotonicity violation. We show that eight among the ten elections held since 1965 (those in 1965 and 1974 being the exceptions) exhibit this theoretical vulnerability. To be sure, the conceived scenario of vote shifts that enables a monotonicity violation may not be plausible under the political context of the considered election. Thus, we analyze the political landscape of these eight elections and argue that for two of them (2002 and 2007 elections), the monotonicity violation scenario was plausible within the conjuncture of the time.