Reducing EU cattle numbers to reach greenhouse gas targets

Résumé 0

Cattle are directly responsible for half of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from EU agriculture, once enteric fermentation and manure management are taken into account. Faced with the need to achieve a rapid curbing of GHG, voices in some EU circles have been calling for reducing the size of cattle herds, a radical option whose impact has not even been roughly estimated. As a working assumption, this paper first analyses the decrease of EU cattle numbers required to achieve 30% of the GHG reduction targets in agriculture for 2030. Based on the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), the corresponding decrease in EU cattle numbers would be 16.3 million head, a 22% reduction compared to 2022. We then discuss the implications of such a downsizing for trade and beef consumption within the EU, taking stock of current data and formulating some assumptions about supply and demand behaviour. Finally, we briefly consider other mitigation measures less radical than downsizing.