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2018
- handle: 10670/1.s77qb3
- hal: hal-03323340
- doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aab211
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/aab211
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
electricity generation climate change impacts wind power solar pv thermoelectric hydropower Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q4 - Energy/Q.Q4.Q41 - Demand and Supply • PricesSujets proches
Climatic changes--Environmental aspects Global climate changes Climate change Climatic change Climate variations Climate changes Global climatic changes Changes, Climatic Climatic variations Climatic fluctuationsCiter ce document
Isabelle Tobin et al., « Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1088/1748-9326/aab211
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Résumé
The electricity sector is currently considered mainly on the emission side of the climate change equation. In order to limit climate warming to below 2 °C, or even 1.5 °C, it must undergo a rapid transition towards carbon neutral production by the mid-century. Simultaneously, electricity generating technologies will be vulnerable to climate change. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on wind, solar photovoltaic, hydro and thermoelectric power generation in Europe using a consistent modelling approach across the different technologies. We compare the impacts for different global warming scenarios: +1.5 °C, +2 °C and +3 °C. Results show that climate change has negative impacts on electricity production in most countries and for most technologies. Such impacts remain limited for a 1.5 °C warming, and roughly double for a 3 °C warming. Impacts are relatively limited for solar photovoltaic and wind power potential which may reduce up to 10%, while hydropower and thermoelectric generation may decrease by up to 20%. Generally, impacts are more severe in southern Europe than in northern Europe, inducing inequity between EU countries. We show that a higher share of renewables could reduce the vulnerability of power generation to climate change, although the variability of wind and solar PV production remains a significant challenge.