Le rôle de la prospective dans le lancement d'une politique de développement des énergies marines renouvelables en France de 2000 à 2015

Résumé Fr En

Resume Les énergies marines renouvelables représentent aujourd'hui un maillon important dans la politique énergétique française pour répondre aux objectifs ambitieux qu'elle s'est fixé en matière d'énergies renouvelables. Cet article analyse le rôle, l'influence et le poids de la prospective dans le lancement de ces énergies marines renouvelables en France, de 2000 à 2015.

The influence of foresight analysis in decision-making process is controversial, which justifies trying to identify this influence in a real case: the launching the French industry of marine renewable energies (MREs) from 2000 to 2013. It is first crucial to list the “actors” involved in this case: stakeholders such as industry, research, regional bodies, think tanks, Government, literature, international organizations. The position of each actor is then screened yearly through five types of position: neutral, oppositional, inconclusive, interested and supportive. The specific influence of foresight studies and think tanks can then be tracked over the years. Results show three main phases: firstly, industry and research record studies and tests. Integrated foresight studies appear mainly in the second phase, linking research, industry and politics (2008-2009). The Ifremer foresight study and the synchronic Ipanema think tank give numerous justifications of MREs development to decision-makers. The third phase is the time for calls, projects and industry initiatives. In fact, foresight played a modest role in decision process but revealed a double usefulness as a function: (1) it helped elaborating an objective and collective approach to the issue; (2) as a “flag” of a think tank, it proposed ways for partnerships. This justifies defining this type of foresight as a “Consensus catalyst for dialogue, proposals and partnership”.