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novembre 2023
- handle: 10670/1.tedr5o
- hal: hal-04347120
- doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.107951
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.107951
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
pollution cities sustainable transport modal shift scenario analysis JEL Codes: R40 Q52 Q53 pollution cities sustainable transport modal shift scenario analysis JEL Codes: R40 Q52 Q53Sujets proches
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Marion Leroutier et al., « Tackling Car Emissions in Urban Areas: Shift, Avoid, Improve », HALSHS : archive ouverte en Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société, ID : 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.107951
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Résumé
Car use imposes costly environmental externalities. We investigate to what extent car trips could be shifted to low-emission modes, avoided via teleworking, or improved via a transition to electric vehicles in the context of daily mobility in the Paris area. We derive counterfactual travel times for 45,000 car trips from a representative transport survey, and formulate modal shift scenarios including a maximum acceptable increase in travel time. For a daily travel time increase below 10 min, 46% of drivers could shift to e-bike – mostly – or public transit – rarely –, with half of them benefiting from a travel time decrease. Such modal shift would reduce daily mobility emissions by 15% and generate annual climate and health benefits worth €125 million. Factors such as living in the far suburbs, being male, or having a high income, are associated with inability to shift modes. Teleworking two days a week could save an additional 5% of emissions. Holding demand for mobility and public transport infrastructure fixed, greater emission reductions require improving cars' environmental performance via a transition to electric vehicles.