Evolution of outpatient healthcare expenditure due to ageing in 2030, a dynamic micro-simulation model for France
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1 mai 2014
- handle: 10670/1.ubxi2i
- hal: hal-03460308
- SCIENCESPO: 2441/5cg3fnvgpv8u5peaglp6lrkkaq
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Charlotte Geay et al., « Evolution of outpatient healthcare expenditure due to ageing in 2030, a dynamic micro-simulation model for France », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10670/1.ubxi2i
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Résumé
PopulationageingwillbeamajorchallengeinEuropeinthecomingdecades.Thisphenomenonwillraisethequestionofthesustainabilityofpublicspendingwithincreasinghealthcareprovisioncosts.Thispaperpresentsadynamicmicro-‐simulationmodelforoutpatienthealthcareexpenditureinFrance,whichprojectshealthcarecostsinthelongrun.Likeallthedynamicmicro-‐simulationmodels,themodelprojectsthepopulationstructureovertime.Theprojectionsarerunusingatransitionprocessbetweenthreestates:twonon-‐absorbing(good-‐healthorill-‐health)andoneabsorbingstate(death).Theoutpatienthealthcareexpenditureisestimatedondatabetween2002and2008throughatwo-‐partmodel.Whilehealthcarespendingof25yearsoldandmorerepresent3.9%ofGDPin2008,theywouldreach4.6%inthebaselinescenarioin2032(+0.7percentagepointofGDPor+17.5%).AdifferenceintheshareofexpenditureinGDPappearsbetweenscenarioswithdifferentevolutionsofhealthstatusduringtheprojectionperiod.Outpatienthealthcarespendingrepresents4.6%ofGDPinthecentralscenarioin2032,against4.4%inthemostoptimisticscenarioand4.7%inapessimisticscenario.