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19 mars 2024
- handle: 10670/1.uhfzg6
- hal: hal-04536394
- doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0297432
- PUBMED: 38502674
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0297432
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/38502674
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Sujets proches
Natural science Sciences Science of science Elections, Municipal Local elections--Law and legislation Elections, County Municipal elections Elections, Local County elections ProofCiter ce document
Davide Morisi et al., « How COVID-19 affects voting for incumbents: Evidence from local elections in France », HAL-SHS : sciences politiques, ID : 10.1371/journal.pone.0297432
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Résumé
How do voters react to an ongoing natural threat? Do voters sanction or reward incumbents even when incumbents cannot be held accountable because an unforeseeable natural disaster is unfolding? We address this question by investigating voters’ reactions to the early spread of COVID-19 in the 2020 French municipal elections. Using a novel, fine-grained measure of the circulation of the virus based on excess-mortality data, we find that support for incumbents increased in areas that were particularly hard hit by the virus. Incumbents from both left and right gained votes in areas more strongly affected by COVID-19. We provide suggestive evidence for two mechanisms that can explain our findings: an emotional channel related to feelings of fear and anxiety, and a prospective-voting channel, related to the ability of incumbents to act more swiftly against the diffusion of the virus than challengers.