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mai 2021
- handle: 10670/1.wp2zz8
- hal: hal-03199108
- doi: 10.1007/s10290-020-00402-1
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10290-020-00402-1
Mots-clés
International migration Migration prospects World economy Inequality F - International Economics/F.F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business/F.F2.F22 - International Migration F - International Economics/F.F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business/F.F2.F24 - Remittances J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J1 - Demographic Economics/J.J1.J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers/J.J6.J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility • Immigrant Workers O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O1 - Economic Development/O.O1.O15 - Human Resources • Human Development • Income Distribution • MigrationSujets proches
Migration, International Immigration International migrationCiter ce document
Thu Hien Dao et al., « Global migration in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the unstoppable force of demography », HALSHS : archive ouverte en Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société, ID : 10.1007/s10290-020-00402-1
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Résumé
This paper sheds light on the global migration patterns of the past 40 years, and produces migration projections for the 21st century. To do this, we build a simple model of the world economy, and we parameterize it to match the economic and socio-demographic characteristics of the world in the year 2010. We conduct backcasting and nowcasting exercises, which demonstrate that our model fits very well the past and ongoing trends in international migration, and that historical trends were mostly governed by demographic changes. Then, we describe a set of migration projections for the 21st century. In line with the backcasts, our world migration prospects are mainly governed by socio-demographic changes. Using immigration restrictions or development policies to curb these pressures requires sealing borders or triggering unprecedented economic takeoffs in migrants’ countries of origin. Increasing migration is thus a likely phenomenon for the 21st century.