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16 avril 2020
- handle: 10670/1.xrsj6k
- hal: hal-03389198
- SCIENCESPO: 2441/32r3ebde539odb82dkmep529vf
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Mots-clés
Lockdown Unemployment Borrowing constraints Incomplete markets Government spending Unemployment insurance D - Microeconomics/D.D5 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium/D.D5.D52 - Incomplete Markets E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy/E.E2.E21 - Consumption • Saving • Wealth E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook/E.E6.E62 - Fiscal Policy J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers/J.J6.J64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers/J.J6.J65 - Unemployment Insurance • Severance Pay • Plant ClosingsSujets proches
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Stéphane Auray et al., « The Macroeconomic Effects Of Lockdown Policies », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10670/1.xrsj6k
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Résumé
A tractable incomplete-market model with unemployment, sticky prices, and a fiscal side is used to quantify the macroeconomic effects of lockdown policies and the miti-gating effects of raising government spending and implementing UI benefit extensions. We find that the effects of lockdown policies, although we are relatively conservative about the size of the lockdown, are huge: unemployment doubles on impact and al-most triples even for relatively short lockdown durations. Output falls dramatically and debt-output ratios increase by several tens of percentage points. In addition, the surge in unemployment risk triggers a rise in precautionary savings that make such shocks Keynesian supply shocks: aggregate demand falls by more than aggregate supply, and lockdown policies are deflationary. Unfortunately, we find that raising public spending and extending UI benefits stimulate aggregate demand or improve risk-sharing but has little effects on output and unemployment, although they do alleviate the welfare losses of lockdown policies for the households.