Temporary employment protection reforms and productivity: evidence from an industry-level panel of EU countries

Résumé En

We investigate the impact of reforms on employment protection for temporary contracts on Total Factor Productivity (TFP) using panel data of industries across 14 European countries. Within-industry variation over the period 1992-2007 is exploited to capture reforms. The legislation on temporary contracts (EPT) affects the use of such contracts, making it a valid instrument to prove a causal relationship between a change in legislation and macroeconomic performances. Indeed, the two stage estimates emphasize the negative relationship between the share of temporary employment and TFP at the industrial level. Marginal effects prove that increasing regulation on temporary jobs has a strong negative impact on the use of fixed-term contracts if employment protection on regular contract (EPR) is low. When employment protection on open-ended contract reaches its highest level; this effect is stronger. Our study shows that asymmetric institutional change might indeed leads to lower productivity growth through a surge in temporary employment.