Modelli urbani: una nuova era?

Résumé En

In the last two decades, several interesting innovations have appeared in the field of urban research. New paradigms such as the dynamics of open systems, self-organization, synergetics, chaos, evolution, were recognized as conveying fruitful analogies for urban theory. New types of modeling were investigated, as sets of non-linear differential equations for spatial systems, cellular automata, multi-agents models, fractal growth, neural networks, evolutionary models… However, most of the new ideas have added very little to the pre-existing urban theory, and most of the models which have been built never have been applied neither compared to other models.Large urban models of the sixties failed mainly because of a lack of technical means for managing the huge amounts of spatially-disaggregated data that were required. Now that those problems may be solved thanks to the development of Geographical Information Systems, there is still a risk for urban modeling of an inability to meet the social demand because of an increasing trend of disconnecting ‘pure’ ‘theory’ and mathematical ‘modeling’ from empirical research. It is suggested that the innovative power of the moment rests in the conjunction of new tools together with old ideas, large amounts of facts and relevant questions.