Fiche du document
2022
- handle: 10670/1.zsmelq
- hal: hal-02563023
- doi: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2022.102669
Ce document est lié à :
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.jmateco.2022.102669
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C61 - Optimization Techniques • Programming Models • Dynamic Analysis D - Microeconomics/D.D6 - Welfare Economics I - Health, Education, and Welfare/I.I1 - Health/I.I1.I18 - Government Policy • Regulation • Public HealthSujets proches
Policy, Government Instruction and study--Methods Measures Military strategy Health services Hygiene, Social Social hygiene Public hygiene Sanitary affairs Public health services Hygiene, Public Community health Systems optimization Optimization techniques Optimization (Mathematics) Optimization theory Wellness Personal health Funds Funding Students--Education Children--Education Education of children Schooling Pedagogy Youth--Education Instruction Education, Primitive Human resource development Box (Plants) Boxes (Plants) Buxus sempervirens Box Common box European boxwood Buxus Common boxwood Instruction and study--Methods Finance, commerce, confiscations, etc Methods of analysis Analysis and chemistry Analytical methods Chemical analysis Analysis methods Analysis and examination Biography--HealthCiter ce document
Laurent Miclo et al., « Optimal epidemic suppression under an ICU constraint: an analytical solution », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1016/j.jmateco.2022.102669
Métriques
Partage / Export
Résumé
How much and when should we limit economic and social activity to ensure that the health-care system is not overwhelmed during an epidemic? We study a setting where ICU resources are constrained while suppression is costly (e.g., limiting economic interaction). Providing a fully analytical solution we show that the common wisdom of "flattening the curve", where suppression measures are continuously taken to hold down the spread throughout the epidemic, is suboptimal. Instead, the optimal suppression is discountinuous. The epidemic should be left unregulated in a first phase and when the ICU constraint is approaching society should quickly lock down (a discontinuity). After the lockdown regulation should gradually be lifted, holding the rate of infected constant thus respecting the ICU resources while not unnecessarily limiting economic activity. In a final phase, regulation is lifted. We call this strategy "filling the box". * We wish to thank Tommy Andersson, Hannes Malmberg and Robert Östling for valuable comments.