Polarization under rising inequality and economic decline

Résumé 0

Social and political polarization is a significant source of conflict and poor governance in many societies. Thus, understanding its causes has become a priority of scholars across many disciplines. Here we demonstrate that shifts in socialization strategies analogous to political polarization and identity politics can arise as a locally-beneficial response to both rising wealth inequality and economic decline. Adopting a perspective of cultural evolution, we develop a framework to study the emergence of polarization under shifting economic environments. In many contexts, interacting with diverse out-groups confers benefits from innovation and exploration greater than those that arise from interacting exclusively with a homogeneous in-group. However, when the economic environment favors risk-aversion, a strategy of seeking low-risk interactions can be important to maintaining individual solvency. To capture this dynamic, we assume that in-group interactions have a lower expected outcome, but a more certain one. Thus in-group interactions are less risky than out-group interactions. Our model shows that under conditions of economic decline or increasing wealth inequality, some members of the population benefit from adopting a risk-averse, in-group favoring strategy. Moreover, we show that such in-group polarization can spread rapidly to the whole population and persist even when the conditions that produced it have reversed. Finally we offer empirical support for the role of income inequality as a driver of affective polarization in the United States, mirroring findings on a panel of developed democracies. Our work provides a framework for studying how disparate forces interplay, via cultural evolution, to shape patterns of identity, and unifies what are often seen as conflicting explanations for political polarization: identity threat versus economic anxiety.