How does public debt matter for price stability? If it is useful for the private sector to insure idiosyncratic risk, government debt expansions can increase the natural rate of interest and create inflation. As I demonstrate using a tractable model, this holds in the presence of an active Taylor ru...
Since 2005 the Mexican economy has registered four disinflationary episodes. We estimate six Phillips curves (OLS and ARDL), to evaluate the sacrifice rate in the GDP, in the unemployment rate, and in the Rate of Critical Labour Conditions (RCLC). Our contribution is that, by including labour precar...
Based on quarterly data on 31 emerging countries (among which 16 are inflation targeting countries) from 1990Q1 to 2014Q3, we obtain a strong support for the conjecture that the implementation of inflation targeting weakens the Fisherian relation between expected depreciation and the interest rate d...
Le comportement de l’inflation aux États-Unis lors de la crise économique de 2008-2009, qui n’a pas suivi les prédictions d’une courbe de Phillips classique, a donné lieu au phénomène de « missing disinflation ». Nous évaluons si ce phénomène a également eu lieu en zone euro. Nous utilisons une spéc...
"Background: Recently, monetary aggregates have played a minor role in the delib- erations of monetary policy in most central banks. This is because the models used are focused on deviations of inflation from a steady state level exogenous- ly given. The quantity of money in the economy determines t...
European economies need to adjust to a sustainable growth path. That implies adjusting internal exchange rates. Since the start of the Great Recession, euro area crisis countries (and more specifically Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland) have engaged in austerity policies in order to slash publ...
L’objet de cette thèse est de tester la pertinence de l’hypothèse du piège du sous développement, en montrant à travers les performances économiques, que la politique de désinflation a installé l’économie marocaine dans un équilibre bas. L’objectif est de mettre en évidence les effets restrictifs su...
Gordon Brown’s first and main policy when nominated Chancellor in 1997 was to reform the monetary framework. This consisted of three major changes dedicated to maintaining price stability. From 1997 to 2007, the new framework seemed efficient, with Britain keeping moderate but constant growth and li...
Gordon Brown’s first and main policy when nominated Chancellor in 1997 was to reform the monetary framework. This consisted of three major changes dedicated to maintaining price stability. From 1997 to 2007, the new framework seemed efficient, with Britain keeping moderate but constant growth and li...
We estimate a medium-scale DSGE model for the euro area in an open economy framework. The model includes structural trends on all variables, which allow us to estimate on gross data. We first provide a theoretical balanced growth path consistent with permanent productivity shocks, inflation target c...
We estimate a medium-scale DSGE model for the euro area in an open economy framework. The model includes structural trends on all variables, which allow us to estimate on gross data. We first provide a theoretical balanced growth path consistent with permanent productivity shocks, inflation target c...
The sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) do find themselves at the crux of a new situation. They are in the process of playing a strategic role in a crisis that the developed countries, starting with the United States, created. And they are going to take advantage of it. This is how the great world imbalan...
Chile and Mexico followed strategies of gradual disinflation during the 1990s, conducted their monetary policies in broadly similar ways, and experienced real currency appreciation. But the appreciation was larger in Mexico, which helps to explain its economic-growth underperformance. Motivated by t...
This article focuses on the comparison of sacrifice ratios as an indicator for structural dispersion within the euro area over the period 1972-2003. Estimates of the sacrifice ratio, defined as the cumulative output cost arising from permanent inflation reduction, are obtained using structural VAR m...
Since 1990, a growing number of countries have adopted inflation targeting (IT) around the world. Empirical evidence on its advantages has been mixed so far, and most assessments have been based on a control group methodology. In this paper, using a MSVAR technique, we assess the adoption of IT in t...
Since 1990, a growing number of countries have adopted inflation targeting (IT) around the world. Empirical evidence on its advantages has been mixed so far, and most assessments have been based on a control group methodology. In this paper, using a MSVAR technique, we assess the adoption of IT in t...
This article focuses on the comparison of sacrifice ratios as an indicator for structural dispersion within the euro area over the period 1972-2003. Estimates of the sacrifice ratio, defined as the cumulative output cost arising from permanent inflation reduction, are obtained using structural VAR m...
The issue of whether globalization has yielded structural changes in the process of inflation is crucial for the definition of the role of monetary policy, and for an assessment of the strategies followed by central banks around the world. This briefing paper will first frame the argument by showing...
Ten years of empirical studies of inflation targeting have not uncovered clear evidence that monetary policy that incorporates formal targets imparts better inflation performance. The authors survey the literature and find that the "no difference" verdict concerning inflation targeting has been robu...
This article focuses on the comparison of sacrifice ratios as an indicator for structural dispersion within the euro area over the period 1972-2003. Estimates of the sacrifice ratio, defined as the cumulative output cost arising from permanent inflation reduction, are obtained using structural VAR m...
This paper studies the dynamics of the interest rate differential across band and floating exchange rate regimes in Chile, Colombia and Israel, and in a benchmark group composed of Italy, Portugal and Spain. Significant differences in the interest rate-exchange rate link are found between the two gr...