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2017
- handle: 10670/1.qphj2r
- hal: hal-01701086
- doi: 10.1063/1.5001820
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1063/1.5001820
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
Spectral Analysis Synchronization Business Cycles C - Mathematical and Quantitative MethodsSujets proches
Synchronism TradeCiter ce document
Andreas Groth et al., « Synchronization of world economic activity », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1063/1.5001820
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Résumé
Common dynamical properties of business cycle fluctuations are studied in a sample of more than 100 countries that represent economic regions from all around the world. We apply the methodology of multivariate singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA) to identify oscillatory modes and to detect whether these modes are shared by clusters of phase- and frequency-locked oscillators. An extension of the M-SSA approach is introduced to help analyze structural changes in the cluster configuration of synchronization. With this novel technique, we are able to identify a common mode of business cycle activity across our sample, and thus point to the existence of a world business cycle. Superimposed on this mode, we further identify several major events that have markedly influenced the landscape of world economic activity in the postwar era.