Understanding the duration of widowhood is essential for individuals and effective widow support policies. However, widowhood duration (WD) remains an understudied topic. In this article, we provide a quantitative estimation of the impact of three primary determinants of expected WD at age 60 within...
Introduction and Objective Occupational risk factors can mediate the effect of socioeconomic status on mortality; however, the reduction in social disparities in mortality that could be achieved by modifying employment and working conditions has been under-studied. Our aim was to quantify the role o...
Increasing life expectancy raises concerns whether the years gained will be spent free of disability. Lately, trends across countries have been heterogeneous. This work examined recent trends in disability-free life expectancy and life expectancy with mild or severe disability in Switzerland. Life e...
The COVID-19 pandemic did not affect European subnational regions in a uniform way. Within a country like France, Brittany seems to have been spared while Île-de-France suffered a heavy toll. Knowledge of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on mortality at the local level is therefore an important i...
This paper investigates the effect of the epidemic of COVID-19 on under-five mortality in four Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDDS): Siaya-HDSS in Kenya, Basse-HDSS in the Gambia, Niakhar-HDSS in Senegal, and Matlab-HDSS in Bangladesh. Inasmuch as the number of deaths due to COVID-19 i...
Background: In low- and middle-income countries, mortality levels are commonly derived from retrospective reports on deceased relatives collected in sample surveys and censuses. These data sources are potentially affected by recall errors. Objective: Using high-quality data collected by the Nouna He...
Background The mortality pattern from birth to age five is known to vary by underlying cause of mortality, which has been documented in multiple instances. Many countries without high functioning vital registration systems could benefit from estimates of age- and cause-specific mortality to inform h...
The Southern chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica) is a small-sized bovid that currently inhabits the Cantabrian Mountain Range, the Pyrenees, and the Central Apennine Mountains. This species was exploited as a resource by Palaeolithic human groups of the northern region of the Iberian Peninsula, standing o...
The relation between the hazard rate and its derivative at modal age at death, an equivalent towhich has been featured by Pollard (1991), Canudas-Romo (2008), Thatcher et al. (2010), andTuljapurkar and Edwards (2011), is presented as a handy tool in studying mortalitycompression in its period and co...
Background The infant mortality rate (IMR) is a critical indicator of population health, but its measurement is subject to response bias in countries without complete vital registration systems who rely instead on birth histories collected via sample surveys. One of the most salient bias is the fact...
We propose a new summary measure of population health (SMPH) called well-being-adjusted healthy life expectancy (WAHE). WAHE belongs to a subgroup of health-adjusted life expectancy indicators and measures life expectancy equivalent to full health. The measure combines health and mortality informati...
The Lee–Carter (LC) model represents a landmark paper in mortality forecasting. While having been widely accepted and adopted, the model has some limitations that hinder its performance. Some variants of the model have been proposed to deal with these drawbacks individually, none coped with them all...
Mortality forecasting has crucial implications for insurance and pension policies. A large amount of literature has proposed models to forecast mortality using cross-sectional (period) data instead of longitudinal (cohort) data. As a consequence, decisions are generally based on period life tables a...
Background: Since the 1950s, many indirect or semi-indirect methods have been developed to either adjust mortality estimates or generate complete life tables from mortality indices in countries lacking high quality vital registration data. These methods are underused for estimating older adult morta...
The prediction of human longevity levels in the future by direct forecasting of life expectancy offers numerous advantages, compared to methods based on extrapolation of age-specific death rates. However, the reconstruction of accurate life tables starting from a given level of life expectancy at bi...
This paper emphasizes the role of land and technological progress in economic and population growth. The model is calibrated using historical data on England concerning both economic growth rate and the factor shares (land, capital, and labor) in total income, as well as mortality tables. It is able...
Background Venezuela is one of the most violent countries in the world. According to the United Nations, homicide rates in the country increased from 32.9 to 61.9 per 100 000 people between 2000 and 2014. This upsurge coincided with a slowdown in life expectancy improvements. We estimate mortality t...
Background: Mortality estimates from various sources suggest that Costa Ricans experience record-high life expectancy at birth in Latin America and higher longevity than the populations of many high-income countries, although there is some uncertainty as to the reliability of those estimates. Object...
This article presents an assessment of individual uncertainty about longevity. A survey performed on 3,331 French people enables us to record several survival probabilities per individual. On this basis, we compute subjective life expectancies (SLE) and subjective uncertainty regarding longevity (SU...
Hearing "there is a 10% chance of rain today" or "the medical test has a positive predictive value of 75%" shows that the probabilities are now everywhere. A probability is a quantity that is difficult to grasp, but essential when trying to theorize and measure chance, or randomness. And if mathemat...
This paper emphasizes the role of land and technological progress in economic and population growth. The model is calibrated using historical data on England concerning both economic growth rate and the factor shares (land, capital, and labor) in total income, as well as mortality tables. It is able...
The aim of this research is to show trajectories of population ageing in Serbia according to chronological and prospective criteria. The data used are from the complete period life tables published around the census years from 1953 to 2011. The emphasis is on the most recent period, since these data...
Tomorrow, we will discuss in our cours forecasting tools for demographics. But first, we will see basic static tools. Before playing with longitudinal dataset, let us use "standard" life tables. Some (French) datasets are available on the INED website, but let us use the most popular ones, the TV889...